Last Friday Spain had the largest bank crash since 1993. Bank Caja Castilla la Mancha crashed, even with attempts at a bailout. The government had to support the bank with $4 billion dollars, and provide $12 billion for loan guarantees. The need for the cash infusion proved that Spain is not above other countries in this time of economic crisis. In fact some of the experts believe Spain’s first bank crash is just the beginning when it comes to the economy. Experts believe Spain will suffer longer than the rest of Europe, as well as have a bigger fall.
Spain expert Dominic Bryant stated in a media conference that the economy is heading for worse problems, and the financial adjustments will be huge. Jose Luis Zapatero disagreed with experts when the world financial crisis first began. He said the country had a large enough surplus of cash to get through the trouble without too many problems. He further stated that they already had tougher regulations on the financial industry than such places as the US or UK.
Zapatero still offered hope in September, stating that the problems would be resolved quickly because Spain has a more stable system. However, recent action shows this may be the farthest thing from the truth. The government sector has had to move quickly with new policies in order to avoid the worst outcomes. Finance Minister Pedro Solbes spoke about the current situation. He stated that the government is going to use public funds to shore up the financial sector. They are not “immune” as others projected.
Bank shares have already begun to tumble due to the CCM’s troubles. There was a 7 percent fall for Banco Santander, which is the largest bank in the eurozone. Many have stated that there is no other way out than to use public funds. CCM’s problems are falling on the heels of other smaller banks. Goldman Sachs had a hand in the downgrading of these smaller banks. They even warned the experts trouble was going to come.
Other experts have been examining the real estate market. It too has begun to see huge losses that will take time to rally from. 70 percent of homes built in the last 3 years are not being sold. Tourism is down by 15 percent in the last month. It is the same story we are hearing everywhere, especially when you consider that the banks placed too narrow a margin regarding income versus the housing price and mortgage needed to purchase the home.
Job losses are another area that some say is being affected. Many job sites in Spain are seeing a rise job searches. In fact www.ofertasdetrabajobarcelona.es are seeing the number of job searches rising in Spain considerably each month. They are a typical jobs site and are seeing this trend first hand.
The area that will most likely seem more affected is going to be the domestic operations. The international banks will also begin to see a problem, as already $332 billion in Spanish banks in Latin America has been used. This amount is a great deal higher than the US banking bailout needed. Latin America is most likely going to default on loans due to the international banks suffering.
Spain is also in a deflation due to a price reduction over the last eight months. Credit Suisse stated that there has been a nine percent price fall in housing values in the last year. Homes are still about 50 percent overvalued, which means it can continue to worsen. Many families will see negative equity very soon.
Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez is actually putting the blame on the working class. He says unless a restructuring of the labour market is made where productivity heightens we can expect to see worse, not only in the banking sector and housing market, but also in unemployment. The Spanish Confederation of Business Organisations is asking for a changing in legal restraints regarding firing works and severance pay awarded. They are asking severance pay to go to 20 days per year with a maximum of 12 payments over the 45 days it is now.
Statistics are showing that unemployment will rise to 4.1 million at the end of the year, and as high as 4.5 million in 2010. The auto industry is the largest problem with jobs at the moment. Auto companies have already had to cut employees from businesses, namely Nissan. At the moment about 75 percent of Lantejuela is out of jobs, which is the highest rate in Spain.
Wed, Apr 22, 2009
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